The judge presiding over AMD's lawsuit just tossed out a chunk of the complaint that pertains to dealings in Europe and Japan:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/27/intel-amd-earnings-markets-equity-cx_rs_0927markets02.html
This is a set back for AMD since their last effort to bring Intel down in Japan resulted in a strongly worded letter and Intel agreeing to modify certain business practises without admitting wrong doing. Ironically, AMD is crying foul on behalf of the Sony business who are 100% Intel and seem to give no indication of even letting AMD in the door.
As I said before, this law suit will stretch for years under the wonderful American judicial system. The only people who will win are the lawyers at AMD and Intel who will pocket some nice fat fees. If AMD slides to a loss as I have predicted, their shareholders will want to know why they are pursuing an expensive lengthy legal battle with Intel 3 years too late when they should be focussed on growing further the market share they have won. And if they lose market share as I am predicting will happen in Q4, their shareholders will be even less happy.
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5 comments:
No. AMD wins with the lawsuit if it prevents Intel from using illegal tactics to prevent it from gaining share.
Losses would be no big deal. AMD had a loss in Q3 05. AMD had losses every quarter for over a year in 2002 and into 2003. As I've said before, basing the health of the company on reported earnings is ridiculous.
I don't know if Q4 will be a higher volume share than Q2 but I am certain that it will be a higher volume share than Q4 05. This means that AMD's gross revenues and both volume and revenue share will be up from 2005. In contrast, Intel's will be down probably 12% from 2005. I think it's more likely that Intel's shareholders will be unhappy.
1. Agree - but only partly. To modift Intel's business practises AMD must have some kind of victory or settle (not necessarily cash). If they cannot make this stick then they have given Intel the license to continue their business practises (assuming they are illegal which neither of us know). More importantly, they lose in the court of public opinion and their customers who are anyways not being super helpful so far have less reason to side with them on this in the future.
2. Come on man - a loss making AMD is worse off than a profit making one. Unlike Sharikou, I am not making egregious statements like they will BK. However, a loss making AMD means less money to fund their future. Once again, losses are a big deal. And their stock price will get hammered if they go into the red.
3. I'm talking Q3 vs Q2 and then Q4 vs Q3 - all 2006. More importantly, I'm talking abot momentum moving back toward Intel.
I noticed at Anandtech that Intel is being more open about how it goes about introducing SSE4.
It is in no one's interest, including Intel's if they are a monopoly.
History will record the failure of AMD's case as one of the greatest.
great blog..
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