Monday, November 13, 2006

PIC is dead - I called it in September

In their quarterly filing AMD cancelled PIC. Scroll down to page 32:

AMD Q3 filing

I called this back in September when I said the cash being spent behind the ATI deal would force Hector to review which projects he continues to fund and perhaps the PIC would disappear.

New Bed-fellows
(Scroll down the post)

The point is not PIC itself which has very little material impact on AMD"s revenues. The point really is that AMD will have to now start to manage cash and debt very carefully and they will not be able to invest in as many areas as they have been. The second message in here as that Hector's 50x15 vision becomes only rhetoric. Which is unfortunate for the people who could have benefitted from it...but that's life. In this case, they definitely lived up to their slogan of "Smarter Choice". Just it was the smarter choice for themselves this time round -:)

8 comments:

Unknown said...

On the 50x15 thing, you seem to be ignoring the OLPC, which AMD has been fundamental in creating. This is spawning efforts in many countries to create new broadband and wireless systems, which in effect, accomplishes the same goal.

Anonymous said...

The point really is that AMD will have to now start to manage cash and debt very carefully and they will not be able to invest in as many areas as they have been.

I wouldn't worry about a company who'd spent most of its existence in the red to have problems handling cash and debt.

180 Sharikou said...

Greg - while I commend the vision of OLPC...none of that credit goes to AMD. It is completely and wholly Nicholas Negreponte's vision. AMD is just a hardware supplier in here. Negreponte went to Intel first and Intel refused to participate because they had their own ideas on a series of different solutions to the problems different countries face. You can find out more here if you're really interested:

http://www.intel.com/intel/worldahead/accessibility.htm

However, that's not the point of the post. The point is that with the debt of the ATI acquisition, Hector will be forced to give up some of his other initiatives.

Roborat - glad you're not worried. However, I'm even happier that AMD's management is worried about it as a result of which they're making smart moves like this one scaling back an initiative that really has not got any traction for them.

Unknown said...

I'm not saying your point is invalid, I'm just making a second point to say AMD's commitment to its success still doesn't come above its commitment to helping others (in a sense). I'm sure they're more willing to cut PIC due to the fact that they're helping OLPC.

I don't think this is anything new, just like AMD removing spansion, this is AMD making sure its expanding in the right areas.

180 Sharikou said...

Greg - I agree that cutting PIC is the right decision for AMD. However, where I have a minor disagreement is either AMD or Intel's commitment to helping others is purely altruistic if that's what you're implying. Both 50x15 and World Ahead are efforts to find the next billion PC customers. Sure...they're packaged as programs for the "universal betterment of man" and they do have a positive impact but the motivations are not altogether philanthropic for either company.

On a side note, what this really means to AMD strategically is PIC was their s single solution for the low cost PC to explode the purchase in emerging markets. The key in these markets is being able to build an affordable yet profitable product which nobody has managed to do so yet. By cancelling this they've effectively cancelled their attempt to define this solution themselves. Any of their 50x15 stuff now will primarily be for goodwill and good press. On the flip side, Intel continues to try several things because of their resources. Now...they may not succeed but they are a step ahead simply because they can afford to keep trying.

And that is the key point of this and my earlier post...managing cash & debt will mean Hector will have to make fewer but bigger bets on where AMD will grow.

cheers... -:)

Anonymous said...

Intel releases Core2Duo and trashes AMD with 40 - 80% performance gap.
Then releases Kentsfield to further increase the gap.

Intel releases Woodcrest and then Clovertown.

Intel releases Merom and further leaves an already fledging Turion.

And there's nothing from AMD except AM2, a small speed increase and this supposed your-quad-is-not-native-so-we-come-out-with-a-much-worst-non-native-quad-4x4-solution.

Looks like AMD has stopped fighting bacl and thrown in the towel!

Unknown said...

Nice job completely ignoring the topic at hand anonymous. Please post again when you have something relevant to say.

180, why do you let this stuff through? He didn't even mention AMD's financials, much less the PIC. I find this almost as bad as letting personal attacks through (actually, worse).

180 Sharikou said...

Greg - when I started the blog in order to ensure it was seen as impartial I set myself a standard to not try and filter any comments unless they were downright abusive.

In order to try and ensure the conversation is not stifled I see my role as the stimulator and facilitator of the discussion happening here. However, I don't see myself as the moderator/arbitrator or what would happen is I would become close minded and end up imposing my views. I know it causes some frustration but the best advice I can offer is try and tune out the noise.