I had said back in September that Nvidia and HP would get more aligned with Intel post the ATI acquisition. The Nvidia piece of that has started to materialize.
http://www.nvidia.com/object/IO_37234.html
I'm thinking this is only the first step and there will be more to come between Nvidia and Intel. To read the original post, go here:
New Bed-fellows
So far this week that's 2 predictions come right - this and the demise of the PIC.
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15 comments:
I don't get how advertising their 680i chipset means they're making a strong tie with Intel. They're releasing a 680a chipset as well, it's just not out yet because they see more enthusiast demand for conroes, which makes sense. If you're going to quote the whole "designed specifically for the core2 and core2quad" thing, then I guess that just makes the whole 680"i" make more sense (680"a" is for AMD processors).
I have to agree and it makes sense. With the desire to hurt AMD through the GPU business, i'm sure Intel will be most willing to share advanced design information to NVIDIA.
I'm not quite sure how profitable ATI will be when it loses all Intel platforms. I expect a lot of ATI employees being axed once all ATI designs are only focused or integrated with AMDs. That's about 80% of its previous volumes.
But i'm quite sure AMD has taken this into account.
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35740
Perhaps you missed that:p
http://scientiasblog.blogspot.com/2006/10/real-forecast.html
BTW, can you give us a list of your predictions? Like a certain someone else, bragging about the obvious*cough*:) Ok PIC wasn't obvious but not something to brag about either:)
http://www.tgdaily.com/picturegalleries/gallery-200611131-18.html
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35723
What do you make of Intel having 40% Clovertown by Q207 btw?
Greg - if you read my post in September here first, it'll help contextualize the rest of my comments:
http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/new-bed-fellows.html
If you go back in time, Nvidia had warned Intel that they would come through the graphics side and fight them on GPUs. Why do you think when Intel ran into a chipset issue they went ATI...even though ATI is the smaller player and the key issue to be resolved was supply. That relationship has now changed. Back in September there was a lot of speculation about how this would play out between AMD/ATI, Nvidia and Intel.
My call was simple..."The enemy of my enemy is my friend". Nvidia cannot trust AMD in spite of all of AMD's rhetoric around openness and working with everyone. They also cannot trust Intel but it is far better for them to play with Intel who at least are not a threat to their bread & butter discrete business (at least for now). I'm sure a number of "gives & gets" have been negotiated between the two and this is only the start. I suspect it's a matter of time before we start to see an Nvidia solution show up in Intel mobos.
Think about it again. Nvidia decides to launch their chipset product first for Intel's new CPU which has probably not even shipped a million desktop units yet? And they ignore AMD who conservatively are 25% of the desktop business and probably a larger segment in their core audience. Though the new 600 series chipsets are not just in the enthusiast space - their are 2 flavours of the 650 going all the way down the stack.
My overall point is this is not the end - it's the beginning of a closer Nvidia/Intel relationship.
Roborat - I'm with you on all counts. AMD has definitely factored this in and will continue to try and milk a relationship with Nvidia as long as they can to give themselves more time. Eventually, for AMD to grow significantly over time (I'm talking revenue) they really need to make a dent in the client side in the enterprise segment - desktop and notebook.
For that...they need platorms and hence chipsets/graphics. I don't think they really care about ATI's discrete graphics business and they will allow that to wither over time. While the graphics margins come from discrete graphics...the volume is in integrated and enterprise. Since all three companies are of a certain size, none can afford to get niched if they want growth. Hence, the happy trade between Nvidia and Intel. Nvidia develops technologies that work well with Intel's CPUs (because Intel's own graphics are bad) and in exchange Intel gives them an entry into a much larger integrated market.
What will change the equation is when Intel develops their own discrete graphics and if that's reasonably good then Nvidia will be forced to accelerate their own GPU. However, I think they are in a tougher position than either AMD or Intel.
Anonymous:
Actually - I did see the 4x4 article but since I'm not enough of a technical expert I tend to explore more the business impact. But more specifically to your question on the 680a chipset. Here's my thinking:
1. Is the 6xxa going to be only a 4x4 solution or something they are going market to general end users as well? If it's only a 4x4 then this is a highly niche market.
2. If it's for a broader market then why has Nvidia not announced it at the same time as the 6xxi series considering AMD's strength in their core enthusiast market?
Either ways, Nvidia and Intel seem to be having a higher level of co-operation today than they were a year ago. And I strongly believe that more is to come. See my other comments above as well.
I'm happy to call out my predictions. I'm also happy to tell you (I've said this elsewhere in the comments) that I'm not pig-headed to not admit I'm wrong or to change my calls as the things in the market change. At this point I'm calling a reversal of fortune between Intel and AMD and I'm happy to tell you that the call I'm making going short term long on Intel seems to be paying off as the stock has risen about 20% since I started writing this blog in August.
Also, I do this in my spare time so I'm pleasantly surprised that some of the things I said are coming true. However, if you're reading my blog and assuming I'm making myself out to be the Oracle who can foretell the future then you're in the wrong place my friend - I do have a link on the left to someone who does that kind of thing though. I also will point you to where I made the call when I say I'm right and will not hide behind any FUD if you ask me to show you where should I fail to validate my claim to being right in my actual post.
On Clovertown - here's my take. There are two things driving this steep ramp:
1. Intel has too much capacity. They said last year they would build extra so they never had to lose a single piece of business because of supply and the risk of that is the factories are either not full or inventory is piling up. It is better economics for them to build more quad cores at marginal premiums if they can load the factories.
2. The faster they ramp quad core, the more pressure they put on AMD's own supply. Yes...yes, I know 65nm is coming, etc. However, for all that rhetoric from the guys who defended AMD's capacity 6 months ago when I left some posts on Sharikou's blog, AMD is capacity constrained today. And if Intel ramps quad core then once AMD launches in Q207, they will either have to divert their mix faster to quads because that's where the market is moving (which impacts their capacity) or make some hard choices and possibly give up certain enterprise accounts or take the hit in segments of the market. As we can see that they have decided strategically to focus on large OEMs at the cost of the channel.
"If it's for a broader market then why has Nvidia not announced it at the same time as the 6xxi series considering AMD's strength in their core enthusiast market?"
I don't remember saying the a series would be a broader market. AMD's AM2 platform doesn't have any reason to advance beyond their current chipsets. You can throw more peripherals, and an extra pci-e slot at the consumer, but that's not going to sell enough chipsets currently to justify the investment. They didn't announce it at the same time because there currently isn't a product that will give the 680a traction, like 4x4. the 680i has conroe, which is an expanding product line in terms of demand, and should be compatible with kentsfield. Both of these products are basically on the market. 4x4 is pretty close, but I'm sure they're just waiting to release the chipset at the same time, in order to spike demand.
It still doesn't make sense for Nvidia to launch a new product for AM2 with diminished channel supply and AMD's current capacity constraints.
Why wouldn't Nvidia be able to trust AMD? AMD is depending on Nvidia for their 4x4 launch chipset. I'm pretty sure this makes their relationship pretty strong still. Intel can't make a very viable platform with someone else's graphics or chipsets. AMD tried that before with Nvidia, and it didn't work. In fact, the platform sold poorly enough that I'm pretty sure it wasn't just because of the low demand for AMD back then.
I still can't look anymore into it than you do on 680i, announced with Kentsfield, as opposed to 680a, which will probably launch with 4x4.
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35334
The Inquirer does claim that 680a is 'just' 2 590s though..
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20061110-8197.html
I find that more interesting though, with ATI out, Intel needs a strong IGP platform.
I didn't say you were wrong in your predictions but it seems a bit narcissistic to remind us of your not very..hard to see predictions:p I wonder if Sharikou and his crazy predictions will still be active so we can all spam with "Intel's not BK" and he revises it to 2010:)
Anonymous:
I'm not a tech guy but it does seem to me from a business standpoint that:
1. If AMD wanted to continue to keep Nvidia happy, offering them development on 4x4 which is bound to be niche allows them to appease without really impacting the business where the real money is to be made in the near future.
2. I'm assuming that patching 2x 590's together doesn't requre the level of investment building a new chipset for 4x4 does and that makes sense from an Nvidia POV for a market that's going to be a niche in the near future.
As for narcissism...remember why I started this blog. Because I was tired of Sharikou's outrageous predictions and refusal to acknowledge other's POV. Hence, I think it's ok to point out that my track record on this is a little better...specially since there are visitors who may have only started coming here recently and will not have read my previous posts.
Reverse Sharikou wrote:
Hence, I think it's ok to point out that my track record on this is a little better...
… a little? Come on!
Not to take any credit away from you, SHARIKOU is delusional and has never predicted anything correctly (i.e., intel’s profit losses and ever moving bankruptcy, etc.).
Neither has he even interpreted current events correctly (exploding laptops, current AMD processors “fragging” Intel’s, etc.).
All you needed to do is at least get one thing right and you’d still be infinitely much better than his record.
But yet you do get a lot of things correctly. So I say, GOOD JOB!
But yet you do get a lot of things correctly. So I say, GOOD JOB!
Well...thank you sir!
-:)
http://scientiasblog.blogspot.com/2006/10/real-forecast.html
BTW, can you give us a list of your predictions? Like a certain someone else, bragging about the obvious*cough*:)
I had to laugh at this post. If you have a prediction from 2004 for 2006 that has come true I'd love to see it. But then, being anonymous is all about avoiding responsibilty isn't it?
I think Sharikou-180 is way off on his "enemy of my enemy" angle. However, his words are out there for everyone see. Owning what you post shows far more integrity than making a few jabs as anonymous.
So silly Scientia, to address me while I'm anonymous on 180 yet ignore me on your own blog:/
You should be able to tell who I am if it means so much to you;)?? If 180 provides me with the convenience to not spend 5 seconds on logging in then I will:D Argue with the message not the person:/
http://scientiasblog.blogspot.com/2006/10/real-forecast.html
Maybe you should read your predictions again but I don't see anything insightful:/ It's obvious that if 1 Prescott isn't good, 2 isn't going to be much better. They've had mobile on desktop before so it's expected for Yonah to also be on the desktop.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/03/15/amd_turion_bench/
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=14257
With the ownage of Turion by Pentium M and the wall of heat approached by Prescott, it was obvious that they weren't going to continue the Netburst path.
I stand by my case that you have nothing to brag about unless you predict something like AMD and ATI as well as correct on many other unforeseen.
Anonymous said...
Scientia mite go around proclaiming his unbias but he is at heart an amd fan boy but def better than sharikou cuz unlike the doctor atleast his theories are not all that far fetched.
Are you upset by that btw? It's not me, as I'm sure you are able to tell by now that I can spell:D I'm not the only one that can see you slant your blog towards pro AMD/anti Intel stuff.
With my advanced Googling skills, I've found these comments from Sharikou about you. Come on, and you still insist to us that you have no preference towards AMD/Intel? Even your own supporters can see.
I think Scientia is a couple of notches above sharikou in the intelligence front. He's definately an Amd fanboy like sharikou, but unlike sharikou he know how to present an opinion without comming across as a cartoon caricature, which sharikou has now become.
WTF??? You can't be serious dude. You are using a link to a picture of a benchmark for evidence. WOW! I vote that we replace this clown as the representative of AMD fanboys with Scientia. Scientia a real AMD fanboy who knows what the @$@#$ he is talking about.
This blog is so embarrassing for real AMD fans. Sharikou is a joke and can't be taken seriously anymore, just look at his resent post. For a real discussion about pervasive 64 bit computing please go to....
http://scientiasblog.blogspot.com/
HUH??? WTF is wrong with you sharikou? This story is in now way good news for AMD. You have no logic. I'm starting to see why more people are switching over to Scientia's blog. I think that you don't even care anymore what you write as long as it gets responses from intel fanboys. If you have the courage to post this then I urge the true Amd fans and the Intel fans to head over to Scientia's blog where the host is inteligent and is able to defend his points withour resorting to irrational garbage and ridiculous titles like "People rather wait for AMD than go Intel" What is that? Then you spew a couple of sentences about nothing. This is garbage that attract fanboys and provides no technical or financial information just a bunch of fanboys insulting each other. How about writing about technology and how pervasive 64bit is.
Still the same fanboy blog type. No change. Sctupidas is 100% AMD fanboy right thrugh. He just tries to hide it more. Still pathetic.
Scientia i keep on hearing you blabbing about about how these professional review sites are not doing the rite reviews. You have yet to show any application that mainstream consumers use that will hamper the FSB of kentfield. Could you
A) produce some evidence to back your claims instead of coming up with things out of ur a$$
B) do the kentfield tests yourself and show the professional site how proper benchmarking is done.
Mind you if you choose option B it has been tried before with sharikou when the woodcrests came in (still waiting on those results pretender) and he shut up after he could not back up any of his claims about the supposed benchmarking he was going to do.
180, I would post this on Scientia's, but he has censored me in the past, especially when I'm being 'real':/ Oh yeah, both of you should be on each others blogs:)
Red, you should realize you should log in when posting because regardless of the situation, you have infinitely less respect by
posters and moderators when you're anonymous, because you can't be held responsible for your comments later. Too bad it takes a minuscule amount of time to log in, just do it so we can tell who you are and where you're coming from.
I can see why he blocks you if you're going to post a ton of really long quotes that have a) nothing to do with the topic at hand or b) are designed completely for character defamation. Obviously we can't be perfect, but come on. Either site specific examples where Scientia was wrong about a prediction, or just say he never predicts anything.
Let readers determine the bias of one blogger or another, as no one is perfectly neutral in any respect, and I vouch that Scientia does a really good job being fairly conservative in his stances. Scientia and 180 are looking at certain indeterminable variables in different ways, and that produces a different outlook for both companies involved in the debate, so both look like they have a bias towards one or the other.
Chances are, when we do finally see a specific shift towards either one of their viewpoints, either one or both of them will change aspects of their stance again, and look like they're either taking advantage of the situation, or dodging responsibility for their claims.
However, in other news, Intel is being a jerk and forcing Via out of the cpu market because it doesn't like the fact that Via addresses a portion of the embedded and htpc market that it can't. Good job showing us you haven't really changed Intel, because we like products designed by jerks.
Greg, I do not go out of my way to go out and say that Scientia is a fanboi. He starts it by using Intel fanbois in his post and when he randomly spouted in 180's Channel Unhappy with AMD that it was a cherry picked article, ironic considering the obscure things he discusses.
Intel is a corporation. They are out only to make money. How do you think AMD would be if they were on top?
If it means so much to you I'll sign here:)
- Red
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