I'm going to be away and kind of busy for a few days. May not get to post but will definitely make time to come back and look at Intel's Q3 results on the 17th. I will however check in and ensure comments get through. Till then, remember my prediction:
Intel will regain market share and momentum (share + margins) in Q4. If you wanted my advice, I would have told you to buy Intel at 17$. Now, buy AMD when it goes below 22 and hold till they re-gain traction. Remember - I'm not qualified to give you this kind of advice and you are not expected to take it. But hey...it's the Internet and heaven knows what other kooky things you may have been learning on it.
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With Dell, I would expect Intel to continue to lose market share til Q107-Q207. Core 2 at $180+ while Netbursts are still a good chunk of product. 2008 should be total elimination of Netburst, with Celeron D 400 coming Q307.
Don't forget that starting Q4 all the other OEMs will begin introducing Core 2 SKUs. Since there is a limit to the number of SKUs an OEM will keep, bank on it that some product lines will get replaced. Which those are is to be seen but I'm pretty sure that some AMD based lines will fall off.
Isn't AMD's ASP lower?
http://www.overclockers.com/tips904/
I've seen a more recent article.. But AMD will still eat the Sempron cake.
Another interesting dynamic in retail is the botique system. Look at the HP "shuttle" PC's and the Sony "lifestyle" PC's - essentially the CPU tucked behind the display.
Because Core2 is powerful and thermally cool, there will be a lot more and different designs.
AMD is still in the door as an alternate and generally shows up in towers only.
Already, Apple uses Merom in their iMacs and CoreDuos in their MacMinis to put a lot of power in small packages.
No one in retail is doing that with AMD.
AMD just cannot make enough processors to feed the beast and ever get above them hump. With competitive products they were making headway. With inferior products, the best they can hope for is to tread water.
I think Intels missteps are ending. AMD will disappoint wall street this Q.. Just a feeling!
Anyway, great blog.. Visit my blog and drop me a line:
itkitty@blogspot.com
It's possible Dell wrote a big check to AMD just so the stock doesn't crash:)
"It's possible Dell wrote a big check to AMD just so the stock doesn't crash:)"
Unlikely as this would be illegal and personally put higher ups at Dell at risk of prison/major fines if cuaght when audited... there are strict accounting rules as to when/how you can recgnize revenue.
But Dell could have bought a huge chunk of chips up front - noone knows how the AMD-Dell deal is structured.
Since AMD claims 18% unit sales growth - this could be one potential explanation. I doubt the overall market grew by 18% so once MSS #'s come out it may be possible to determine if AMD sold a bunch of chips. Once you subtract out the overall industry growth the remaining %increase in AMD sales should be reflected by similar % market share improvement unless there customers are just increasing inventories. (You'll also need to factor in the Intel unit sales growth as well)
Unfortunately, I don't think Intel reported specific unit growth # - this, the 18% AMD # and market share change will be needed to understand if AMD just piled up some chips at Dell, or elsewhere.
(I don't think MSS #'s would reflect chip inventory at Dell, just end sales...someone correct me if I'm wrong)
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