tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90201085382979553042012-01-19T20:09:30.844+08:00I started this blog as a forum to facilitate the intelligent conversation around the AMD and Intel battle that could be happening on the Doctor's blog but unfortunately doesn’t. An analytical and intelligent POV will be appreciated. I do occasionally try and predict what happens next. I am currently long Intel and short AMD in my predictions so please keep that in mind. Some of the posts require you to read my earlier comments to understand my POV. Where I can, I will link back.180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.comBlogger1231100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-65828482388084054622010-01-04T00:36:00.003+08:002010-01-04T00:53:52.836+08:00

It's been 2 years since I last posted. Much has happened for me professionally and personally that has kept me really busy.But the real reasons the blog was in hiatus were:1. Sharikou had become boring and predictable. It wasn't fun razzing with da man any more. In fact, my own last few posts were becoming slightly Sharikouesque in nature - simply attack without much fact.2. The battle between

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-40420713725288428062007-12-11T00:44:00.000+08:002007-12-11T00:49:33.921+08:00

Read this - pretty self explanatory and not too shocking. After all why change from TDP to ACP after so many years. It's just deceptive marketing to hide the truth about a sad product line up.In further evidence of their "head in the sand syndrome" - they hired a new high level VP when one would think they should be cutting costs till they stage some kind of recovery.AMD is going down...

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-41817010313043693022007-12-07T00:35:00.001+08:002007-12-07T00:47:35.394+08:00

With everything else heading backward, it's not surprising AMD's roadmap is doing the same. AMD plans to bring more K8 models out while reducing it's K10 line up.Well - why would anyone in their right mind do this? No reason actually. But remember, we're talking about someone who is not in their right mind currently. My Ruiz continues to be obsessed with unseating Intel and getting to 30% market

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-15124573359275024022007-12-06T17:35:00.000+08:002007-12-06T17:55:25.864+08:00

AMD stock is now $ 8.91 due to an analyst lowering his rating. If they deliver a fantastic quarter as defined by some combination of the following:1. Revenue grows faster than the market (without a significant inventory bloat)2. ASPs flat to up.3. Gross margins increase4. Net loss decreases significantly to the region of 100 million $ (due to an improvement in business conditions and not just

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-40027130486594104132007-11-30T00:12:00.000+08:002007-11-30T00:39:40.815+08:00

Alas - sad news for AMD and good news for Intel. iSuppli released it's preliminary results of the world's largest semiconductor companies and Intel outgrew the industry with 7.7% growth while AMD declined by 22.7% and also dropped out the top 10 after being in there for just one year.This is yet another catalyst for a change at the top at AMD. Hector was apparently in Bangalore opening a new R&D

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-57400119874037186292007-11-28T10:06:00.000+08:002007-11-28T10:34:08.348+08:00

AMD is apparently pondering the purchase of Aegia.This of course is a smart use of executive time when you have no cash in your pocket and a competitor who is coming at you like speeding train. But heck - let's sell out the company completely to acquire whatever we need because we're all so fixated on getting 30% market share.It's no wonder AMD's stock hit a 1 year low all the way down to $9.80 a

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-63894081717988544042007-11-25T20:51:00.000+08:002007-11-25T20:54:50.078+08:00

Intel raised their cash dividend by 13% effective quarter 1 2008.I had mentioned earlier they may increase their stock buy back to have a blow out Q407. This looks like an alternative route to having the same effect. Basically signalling to the market that the board believe the fundamentals are incredibly strong. Personally, I prefer stock buy backs because reducing the outstanding shares nudges

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-91147537213821908582007-11-22T23:36:00.001+08:002007-11-24T10:33:46.378+08:00

I'm going to say I told you so...because I did.Now I'm not trying to gloat even though it's gratifying to be right. However, the problem here is AMD continues to pile on the debt and dilute shareholder value/equity as Hector blindly chases 30% market share in a bid to topple Intel.The wise man would run away to fight again another day. But Hector is not behaving wisely at all. And it is a matter

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-80512062510841227662007-11-22T23:24:00.000+08:002007-11-22T23:30:45.437+08:00

Back here I had written a post on the EEE PC.The EEE PC is selling like hot-cakes. This is the future my friends. A low cost, reasonable performance, ultra portable PC. And this will only get better with SIlverthorne and some of other Intel's products on their roadmap. Imagine what a killing they're going to make with a 25$ CPU on which they can still make 50-60% margins. AMD is about to miss out

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-32725498294534754162007-11-21T23:03:00.000+08:002007-11-21T23:41:54.286+08:00

AMD heads back to the market for more cash. This time Abu Dhabi buys an 8.1% stake.Interestingly, AMD only got 12.70 $ per share so there really wasn't any premium. Which is interesting and a telling sign. The positive of this transaction is that they now have a vested interest from backer who has unlimited funding at his disposal. So should they need to secure more cash, they know where to go.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-77027143704032019822007-10-22T23:25:00.000+08:002007-10-23T00:17:54.331+08:00

AMD had an improved quarter too:Press releaseResultsLet's look at the same numbers as the Intel report below to see whether there are some market trends emerging.- Revenues of 1.632 billion up from 1.378 billion in Q2.- EPS loss of 71 cents which beat the street forecast.In dollars this was 396 million.- Gross margin 41% up 8% from 33% in Q2. However, 2 points of the improvement came from an

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-16791240269824616692007-10-17T11:24:00.000+08:002007-10-17T12:03:37.716+08:00

Intel announced a bang up quarter today:Results- Revenues of 10.1 billion. Well above the updated forecast of 9.6.- EPS 31 cents. Beating the Street by 1 cent.- Gross margin 52.4%. At the high end of their forecast and up 5.5% QoQ.- Inventories down ~550 million.- Headcount down to 88kThe story is demand is robust. ASPs are flat. The re-structuring is helping drive down costs and make Intel a

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-71494698878255964132007-10-17T11:21:00.000+08:002007-10-17T11:23:31.932+08:00

I've been away from the blog for a few weeks and I apologize. I've been pre-occupied with some other stuff and essentially there's been a whole lot of nothing going on between AMD and Intel as both try and stabilize business, share and most importantly margins.However, Intel's announcement this morning is a good segue to get back to the blog.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-9974247473924664772007-09-05T16:17:00.000+08:002007-09-05T16:22:56.560+08:00

AMD loses another senior sales executive.It seems like rats are deserting the sinking ship. It would have been ok if Henri left and was replaced by someone else. However, Henri leaves, Hector says I'lld do the job and now Rick Hegberg leaves. These are not good signs for AMD. On the positive side. Their costs are reducing.I wonder if Hector will be doing this job too? Troubling times for AMD.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-55814774733799376342007-09-04T22:21:00.000+08:002007-09-04T22:24:49.099+08:00

Bank Of America increases their price target on Intel from 29$ to 31$.Intel is on a roll. Barcelona is not going to save AMD. Not with Penryn coming in less than 60 days from launch.Still not Barcelona performance numbers with a week to launch. They must be working day and night to get competitive performance and are still struggling.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-5344157202029744702007-08-23T08:32:00.000+08:002007-08-23T08:53:37.885+08:00

Henri Richard - chief sales and marketing honcho at AMD quit today.Link 1Link 2Sales and marketing will now directly report into Hector. Heads have started to roll at the Jolly Green Giant. When you miss your revenue target quarter on quarter, the first person to blame is your sales guy. Of course, can you blame him if you are obsessed with winning market share even though your current product

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-70563970780238762742007-08-19T23:23:00.000+08:002007-08-19T23:33:58.432+08:00

...in this case a big field behind their HQ in Sunnyvale apparently.I guess that should reduce their Q3 losses by a few million.Desperate times at AMD. I repeat, they need to cut heads and costs. The way to cut costs is by Hector focussing on key projects and not trying to do everything. Some time ago I had predicted the PIC would die. It actually did - and then foolishly was revived. Hector

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-8088784267204758372007-08-17T00:59:00.000+08:002007-08-17T01:04:58.393+08:00

AMD continues to have problems with Barcelona.What can I say. With a launch that wasn't soon enough and production problems, all they need now is for the performance to be disappointing and they will be toast.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-11215004450622936092007-08-15T10:38:00.000+08:002007-08-15T10:45:47.977+08:00

Penryn is on track for November 11.AMD will not have enough lead time in the market with Barcelona to establish a lead. Since the only proof we have of Barcelona's superiority to Penryn is that AMD tells us they're better than the current generation Clovertown, it's unlikely they will have much performance advantage. And possibly be at a disadvantage. As a result, they will not be able to enjoy

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-47472584219415286752007-08-09T22:35:00.000+08:002007-08-09T23:11:36.085+08:00

AMD heads back to the capital markets to borrow 1.5 billion through the issuance of convertible notes at 5.75%.They intend to re-pay the the Morgan Stanley loan as per the conditions of that loan with this money and use the balance for working capital.This adds more pressure to AMD's financials and their stock price.Hector and team will have to cut back costs at this rate. I said earlier, they

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-44515878929079200352007-08-07T00:32:00.000+08:002007-08-07T00:42:48.501+08:00

I ranted and raved about how the analysts are pumping up AMD's share price even as it loses money. I had called a trading range of 11.50 - 13.00 in the commentary of one of my posts (can't be bothered to look for it now).AMD is now trading around $ 12.50. I expect this to go still further South close to 12. Will it drop to 10...it should. But at that point it probably starts looking attractive to

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-59591485740435537632007-07-23T22:25:00.000+08:002007-07-26T10:43:17.610+08:00

Ok - I did not see it coming the way it did finally. I did mention earlier that AMD might start giving stuff away at close to cost to fill their factories and win share - every unit they sell is a unit Intel doesn't sell. However, this is the weirdest result I've every seen.Significant revenue and gross margin growth in spite of which losses that were similar to Q1. Get the details here:Q2

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-31801112818433146552007-07-18T19:52:00.000+08:002007-07-22T12:18:32.718+08:00

I haven't had much time to listen to the Intel announcement. However, the gross margin was disappointing and as I said below, if Intel misses then the stock is heading down about 5 points which it did after hours. However, I think this will stabilize and possibly go back up 1-2 points as folks look at the results with a cooler head. What was really disappointing was Intel's Q3 revenue forecast

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-61810744743683760472007-07-17T20:10:00.001+08:002007-07-17T20:22:59.662+08:00

In a short while Intel will announce their Q2...followed by AMD a couple of days later. I've been busy to really do any analysis but I'm going to put some thoughts down anyways with an eye on what would happen to the stock.IntelI see two possible scenarios for Intel.1. They hit the numbers (revenue/gross margin) they gave Wall Street at the end of Q1. In addition, EPS comes in as forecasted by

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-8228625216999871422007-07-11T10:23:00.000+08:002007-07-11T10:33:34.504+08:00

AMD cuts prices again at the same time trimming their product line of single core at the bottom.This is pre-empting Intel's July 22 price cut. It will reduce their Q3 margins so they will need to re-gain share to balance this out. However, the key issue here is once again they are shafting their channel by dropping prices at short notice. All the guys who bought inventory in the last couple of

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-8990158576468657972007-07-10T00:42:00.000+08:002007-07-10T00:43:11.979+08:00

Good article at the Motley Fool.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-64782675296166631652007-07-06T01:08:00.000+08:002007-07-10T00:56:25.047+08:00

George Ou from ZDNet posted a scathing review of not just the Barcelona benchmarks but also AMD's ethics.He outright calls them dishonest. I've been saying for some time now that AMD is spending too much time trying to PRtheir way out of the mess they're in instead of focusing on execution.Once again Hector and his boys - stop focusing on bringing Intel down. Focus on building and bringing to

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-72133679666024977142007-06-29T23:43:00.000+08:002007-06-30T00:07:42.106+08:00

It's up to you whether you want to believe the Inquirer. But Charlie the AMD loving penman himself is dissing Barcelona and is writing off AMD being able to compete with it against Penryn.When I wrote this post, I was bored. But the reality is if Barcelona cannot give Penryn a run for it's money, AMD is in a lot...I mean a lot of trouble. With Nehalem coming next year, they needed to use

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-87782795851141371252007-06-28T08:11:00.000+08:002007-06-28T08:22:02.480+08:00

The Inquirer says Barcelona will grace us on September 10th.I don't understand a couple of things (he says whimsically):1. Why are they making such a big deal of pushing server product into the channel. I understand small business probably buys here but surely first thing you want to do is get this into the hands of the OEMs and begin to win back at the large Fortune 500's.2. What's with the

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-23757033077408238492007-06-27T22:00:00.000+08:002007-06-28T11:27:22.164+08:00

iPhone pricing is out.This is one expensive mother. 4GB phone = 499$. 599$ for the 8GB model. A 36$ activation fee. Service plans start at 60 bucks and go to 80 and then 100 bucks a month.This is a pretty expensive phone and the service plans sound like a rip off. But the 36$ activation fee really ticks me off personally. That's like a slap in the face. Basically saying to customers - you're

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-87715537299418677272007-06-14T23:17:00.000+08:002007-06-14T23:21:55.115+08:00

AMD losing lucrative workstation share to Xeon:LinkThis number is going further south this quarter. AMD will probably end back up at 6 points or so. I already said it - they will still lose money this qtr. Probably around half what they lost in their disastrous Q107.They need to intro Barcelona fast...but more importantly their biggest medium term hope is Fusion. Until then, Intel will continue

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-49096974265268968852007-06-13T08:40:00.000+08:002007-06-13T08:54:51.461+08:00

For those who missed it, Asus announced the EEE PC at Computex. A super small 7" notebook running Linux priced at $199.Press ReleaseFlash slide showWhat Asus and Intel seem to be keeping mum about is what's inside. Folks are guessing it's either an A100 or A110 part. However, I'm curious. These parts are finding their way into several devices. But not one of them comes even close to this price

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-798346210571876622007-06-06T22:27:00.000+08:002007-06-06T22:30:41.740+08:00

Henri Richard continues with the ultra-positive and probably mis-leading rhetoric:AMD aims to reverse market share slideThis from the same guy who during their Q1 analyst call said that when the final market share numbers came in, the share numbers would not be as negative as the revenue and profit shortfalls. These guys are giving away any credibility they built. I don't think they understand

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-1810025980517490662007-06-06T22:11:00.000+08:002007-06-06T22:13:49.736+08:00

Dailytech got a few seconds with Barcelona - and it does not seem impressive right now:Quick & Dirty benchmarkAn existing Xeon beat the Barcelona even after discounting the clock speed advantage for the Xeon.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-16964332361076675052007-06-06T12:40:00.000+08:002007-06-06T12:45:34.543+08:00

This is interesting:Intel, Asustek announce plans for low-cost laptopIf they are able to hit these price points even before Silverthorne then imagine the price point for a laptop with reasonable performance and what it can do for laptop penetration in developing markets. As long as Intel can sustain 50% or so gross margins at these price points because they continue to shrink the cost

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-83538821470924659532007-06-05T01:41:00.000+08:002007-06-05T01:42:18.564+08:00

Day 1 of Computex and no Barcelona announcement. I'm still waiting!

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-77710217309783639472007-05-26T01:36:00.000+08:002007-05-26T01:41:13.078+08:00

Not bad - though the strap makes it look a bit too much like it's designed for women IMHO:World's thinnest laptop

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-9988177589464124482007-05-24T11:11:00.001+08:002007-05-26T10:26:43.420+08:00

Ok - since you guys are pushing me, here's the truth about whether Sharikou and I are the same person. We're not - what we are is a genetic experiment by a secret government agency investigating the effects of creating the psychological and intellectual anti-images of a person.The theory in question here is to test the fundamental nature of human interactions to see whether humans are basically

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-80209578690448184272007-05-24T11:04:00.000+08:002007-05-24T11:28:39.296+08:00

Read these two articles on Uberpulse (thanks Anonymous for the link):8 Intel cores faster than 16 AMD coresBarcelona recent lack of performance and why AMD should start to worryIt is extremely concerning that AMD continues to be unspecific about the Barcelona launch date (I mean come on...we're a few days short of mid 2007) and the absence of samples for the tech press to do independent

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-79289517921667990242007-05-22T23:51:00.000+08:002007-05-24T00:46:02.294+08:00

AMD did another sealed demo of Barcelona where the press couldn't inspect the systems. They ran POV-Ray and Barcelona was able to do 4000 pixels.An anonymous reader sent in this link (thanks) showing how existing Intel Xeon's can best that.Link to Yahoo message boardBarcelona can't even compete with Intel's existing products. It will be history when Intel introduces Penryn. AMD will bleed money

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-73270526626475527282007-05-22T23:48:00.000+08:002007-05-22T23:51:45.864+08:00

I had discussed how Intel should/would dump it's loss making flash business some time this year way back in Q3/Q4 last year. It's finally happened.Intel JV with ST MicroThis will add back 5-10 cents to their EPS in 2008 (assuming deal closes late 2007) and will also boost their gross margins.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-33380641180585715352007-05-22T18:13:00.000+08:002007-05-26T02:44:49.578+08:00

A few days ago I had written part 1 of this post about how Doug Freedman at American Technology Research (ATR) had made a buy rating on AMD as a result of his belief that AMD will now lose a little less money than he had earlier anticipated. I then heaved into the credibility of the Wall Street hacks. I thought I'd have a look at Mr Freedman's track record to make my point:January 12th, 2007 - -

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-71759387690664480372007-05-18T00:12:00.000+08:002007-05-18T00:19:01.531+08:00

It seems like the Barcelona schedule may again be pushed out to August or September with bugs still being uncovered:AMD Barcelona launch schedule up in the airThis is not good news for AMD. And if this happens then the confidence of not just the ODM guys in Taiwan and China but also the OEM manufacturers who are building their server SKU line ups for 2H will be shaken. Which would result in

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-85903604387548509112007-05-17T00:22:00.000+08:002007-05-17T00:34:17.626+08:00

For the ardent followers of Fudzilla - read this and weep:LinkThere's a reason that site is called Fudzilla. FUD = fear/uncertainty/doubt.All pillars of journalism beyond reproach.As I had said, Intel will accelerate their quad core ramp by dropping prices. This is now confirmed:LinkBy bringing quad core down to an entry point of 266$, they will be placing immense pressure on AMD to put their

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-32890297581454650432007-05-15T00:49:00.000+08:002007-06-09T12:08:56.211+08:00

Today I get to marvel at Wall Street and the investment community. Analyst Doug Freedman at ATR upgraded AMD from a "Sell" rating to "Buy" based on the fact that he thinks AMD instead of losing $2.56 per share in 2007 will now lose only $2.27.LinkThe mind boggles at the insanity that prevails on Wall Street. The company is losing money. Essentially Mr. Freedman said instead of losing 1.2 billion

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-1542396636155034342007-05-11T00:17:00.000+08:002007-05-11T00:32:48.616+08:00

As I had predicted, AMD has laid off 430 people or as they say 2.6% of their workforce.LinkHowever, this is probably not enough and they will need to bring their employee base down closer to 15k people from the 16.5k they had post the ATI merger very quickly.AMD also filed their 10Q today. While we already calculated the true loss to the CPU biz, it also reveals a 10% decline in ASPs.LinkAMD

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-60933791350377704942007-05-08T00:10:00.000+08:002007-05-08T01:35:18.299+08:00

Check out this article on Businessweek.Both the analysts and the press are failing to realise the true value of Silverthorne. A SOC that's as powerful as today's computers at a fraction of the size and power consumption but most importantly ridiculously cheap to manufacture. At 2500 chips per wafer which is roughly 10x today's CPU's, Intel is basically able to manufacture Silverthorne at 1/10th

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-48883428771387494852007-05-02T11:21:00.000+08:002007-05-02T11:23:56.043+08:00

Today, I decided to re-name the blog after living with Sharikou 180 for around 8 months. I thought something a little grandiose would be nice. What do you guys think...?

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-53944616331172200282007-04-29T20:44:00.000+08:002007-04-29T20:52:57.851+08:00

AMD closed their 2.2 billion $ 6% loan:LinkWhich basically means another 120 million $ of interest payments they need to make every year not counting principal. In addition, their is stock dilution potential. Essentially putting an even greater burden on their ability to turn quarterly profits any time soon.What should they have done...They should have taken a smaller loan to help them tide over

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-35640598273310931972007-04-26T09:28:00.000+08:002007-04-26T10:34:24.845+08:00

Apple blew away the quarter with an EPS of 87 cents. They shipped over 10 million iPods (when is this thing going to slow down????) and...they shipped 1.5 million Macs. Representing 36% YoY growth. Gross margins were up 6.5% to about 35%. This is not because of the iPods but it's all those high priced notebooks they are selling.ResultsThey grew their notebook shipments and revenue by about 80%

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-90955977093258986642007-04-25T21:42:00.000+08:002007-04-26T09:15:26.803+08:00

Folks - I am testing Google Ad Sense to see how it works. I've placed a couple of non product specific small banners unobtrusively in the left nav. Not asking anyone to click. What I'm trying to do here is figure out how the system works, what Google's revenue sharing is like, how smart is the system is placing ads that are relevant to the content of the blog, etc.This is just a heads up. I will

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-90345406282993090192007-04-25T09:02:00.000+08:002007-04-25T09:48:25.523+08:00

First - let me (with great humility) gloat a little on yet again being right that Intel would begin to retake share by Q107. I just had no idea how right I was going to be:http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070424/intel_amd.html?.v=7http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/technology/bc.intel.amd.reut/index.htmhttp://www.linuxworld.com/news/2007/042007-intel-retakes-market-share-from.htmlWith iSuppli claiming 4.5%

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-77615287010926818962007-04-24T20:53:00.000+08:002007-04-24T21:00:41.296+08:00

AMD is going to borrow another $1.8 - 2.2 billion. Of which half will probably go to Morgan Stanley to pay off the earlier loan:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070423/amd_notes_offering.html?.v=1Bottomline - AMD's debt rating is going to be almost junk status after this. For all intents and purposes they're borrowing about 1 billion $s probably at a higher rate of interest simpply to part pay a loan they

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-60641929389051077852007-04-22T10:56:00.000+08:002007-04-22T11:25:40.553+08:00

There's an interesting story here on the restrictions AMD has from any further funding they may raise in the market:AMD fund raising restrictedAfter their abysmal quarter, AMD's stock price shot up on the speculation of a private equity buy out rumor that's been floating around. However, a cursory look at their Q107 consolidated balance sheet shows that at current stock prices AMD is not really

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-27566496266757428812007-04-21T09:27:00.000+08:002007-04-22T10:53:22.854+08:00

Before you read this, please have a look at the earnings and read the webcast transcript:http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DownloadableAssets/Q107Results.pdfhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/329011. CPU biz revenue is down 31% YoY and 38% QoQ. Not only has there been ASP decline but significant share loss. iSuppli indicates a massive 4.5% share gain for Intel though I'm sceptical it's

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-18552016781532402872007-04-19T08:01:00.000+08:002007-04-19T19:47:30.573+08:00

I'm not going to repeat the numbers here so please read the earnings release (PDF) and listen to the webcast before jumping in:http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=101302&p=irol-earningsresultsIntel came in more or less on forecast though revenue was a bit below mid-point which is concerning. If AMD is going to miss their revenue forecast by a mile and Intel is gaining share and holding

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-15487977795114141322007-04-17T06:16:00.000+08:002007-04-17T06:30:59.156+08:00

I've been busy and only had time to get back to the blog today. It's a nice segue to my last post however. AMD pre-announced a big revenue miss in Q1 = revenue coming in at 1.23 billion on a projection of 1.6-1.7 billion:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070410/advanced_micro_devices_outlook.html?.v=1They also announced a re-structuring with more details to come shortly. In simple English - cost cutting.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-4871912952926113622007-03-26T23:35:00.000+08:002007-03-27T00:26:54.672+08:00

According to the Inquirer who aren't necessarily the gold standard in journalism, rumour is AMD will miss the quarter by 300-400 million $s:http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38487While they are right that Intel is re-gaining sever share, they are fantasizing how miraculously Barcelona combined with AMD's new graphics/chipsets are going to magically recover their Q3/Q4. I would not

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-38608643246606524272007-03-22T23:09:00.000+08:002007-03-23T00:12:07.409+08:00

Michael Dell is in China today. And announced his brave new initiative. A low cost PC for the China market (what a unique idea!):http://news.digitaltrends.com/article12517.htmlhttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/03/21/financial/f125540D90.DTLThe reason I'm underwhelmed is Dell's revenue slide began early last year when they over-emphasized low end systems which crashed their

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-41774368465297757912007-03-11T11:16:00.000+08:002007-03-11T11:48:45.063+08:00

Couple of interesting reports:First...AMD delays moving into their new facility to defer costs to 2007...and they state not to disrupt the Barcelona launch.http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/technology/03/08/8amd.htmlSecond...AMD is reviewing their plans to build the NY fab:http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=570662&category=BUSINESS&BCCode=HOME&newsdate=3/

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com41tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-60937887520172105812007-03-06T00:33:00.000+08:002007-03-06T01:33:40.897+08:00

A few posts ago I had commented that AMD would have to get used to being a sub 20$ stock again. At which point I was corrected by S that the real number would be $10. I must now bow to S's presience.Two things happened this weekend to drive this:1. AMD again pre-announced that it would miss it's Q1 numbers:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070305/amd_warning.html?.v=8http://www.forbes.com/2007/03/05/

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-16803797843827249592007-02-22T22:13:00.000+08:002007-02-23T11:29:21.208+08:00

I've gotta say, as AMD moves along, Hector is beginning to sound like Intel did a few years ago. In denial that they had messed up and spinning his story like everyone else has the IQ of a pea:http://www.crn.com/sections/breakingnews/dailyarchives.jhtml?articleId=197007770Here are some of the good bits:"The one thing that's hard to do is trying to correlate the stock price to anything a company

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com41tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-48152248334318289262007-02-12T09:35:00.000+08:002007-02-12T09:35:32.356+08:00

The Doctor has disabled anonymous posting at his blog. This is primarily due to the fact that some clever bloke was posting anonymously on his blog and here using the Doctor's and Penix's psuedonyms.Obviously the Doctor didn't like the fact that his cage was being rattled.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-7008699867745298432007-02-12T09:29:00.000+08:002007-02-12T16:10:08.093+08:00

The Inquirer is reporting a possible Penryn pull into 1H07.http://theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=37562Pulling in this process by 6 months is unlikely. However, I'm predicting a 1 quarter pull in to end Q307 for the first Penryn to ship. For the people who want clarity - what this means is product will be shipped to OEM &/or channel but does not necessarily mean widespread availability. It

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-29757516017277681702007-02-09T11:06:00.000+08:002007-02-09T11:04:24.539+08:00

Two things I wanna say to the AMD fanboys:1. Where in heavens name did you get the impresion Penryn is going to be late to Q108??? It's coming on schedule in 2007. Read the Intel press release. Penryn was scheduled for end 2007. Intel is obviously ahead of schedule as they have booted 5 different products with multiple OSes. Which is why I'm sure they will pull it into end Q307 with such good

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-3248354264260290292007-02-03T11:53:00.000+08:002007-02-03T11:59:47.885+08:00

Ok - I figured it out. And even left a clue in my comment dated 1st Feb here:http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2007/01/someone-explain-this-to-me.html"Not penix" kind of picked up on it. When you get in to post a comment, you choose the "Other" option. This allows you to leave a post name of your choice and link to any URL. Which is what I did posting under the "fake" Doctor and linking back to

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-87424838900569264122007-01-31T23:48:00.000+08:002007-02-01T22:24:40.191+08:00

There are two really weird comments from Penix and the Doctor here denouncing AMD. Someone tell me what's going on:http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2007/01/amd-is-toast-penryn-to-give-barcelona.html1. Have they finally flipped their lid.2. Has someone stolen their passwords.3. Has an international spy ring of Intel fanbois seduced them and hacked into their computers while they were asleep.4. Or

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-41292524495716263942007-01-29T21:58:00.000+08:002007-01-29T22:07:54.798+08:00

In spite of the micro-architecture being a year older than Barcelona, Core on 45nm is going to give AMD a hard time. I'm sceptical that Barcelona will sweep every benchmark. Intel is really pulling out all the technology stops in the last 6 months. I think Penryn will make the performance/watt playing field level between AMD & Intel and when Nehalem comes out in 2008 AMD is toast.http://

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-721020348530438242007-01-27T01:07:00.000+08:002007-01-27T01:15:48.503+08:00

Intel has won Google back as a server customer:http://news.com.com/2100-1014_3-6153431.htmlThere are two things in here:1. Intel continues to strike at AMD where it hurts them the most. On their high margin server business. As I've said below, this will restrict AMD's profits/margins and hence cash which they need to fund their ATI acquisition, their new fabs apart from all the R&D. With 16

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-52774093386044164552007-01-26T01:41:00.000+08:002007-01-26T01:46:09.874+08:00

Thought I'd point out that my several month old prediction that AMD would suffer a GAAP loss by Q1/Q2 2007 has come true earlier than I thought. Meanwhile, Intel is yet to suffer the GAAP loss the good Doctor Sharikou had predicted.Where I will admit I might have to recant is on my prediction on Intel starting to re-gain share. While they've re-gained revenue share in Q4, it seems like they have

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-59914367404651504432007-01-22T15:20:00.000+08:002007-01-26T01:41:49.926+08:00

I was writing a post on Intel's Q4 results which I had titled the first body blow. However, I wanted to post this real quick so you'll get #2 before #1.(#1 is now posted below)http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070122/sun_intel.html?.v=4http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070122/intel_sunmicrosystems.html?.v=1While this doesn't help Intel very significantly in terms of revenues, share or margins - it is a psychological

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-20961253148651296322007-01-18T23:00:00.000+08:002007-01-26T01:41:00.918+08:00

Intel's Q4 was had a few bright spots and a few dark ones as well.1. On the good side - revenue exceeded forecasts by 300 million. ASPs were slightly up on the microprocessor business. Growth in servers and probably regained share in this segment. They are slightly ahead of their headcount reduction targets and their cost savings for 2007 continue to track to 2 billion $. They also reduced Work

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-34097631393801640112007-01-12T17:44:00.000+08:002007-01-12T22:06:11.744+08:00

Today AMD pre-announced their Q406 would miss Wall Street's expectations quite significantly:1. They are projecting a 3% growth in revenue on signficant unit growth as a result of declining ASPs. 2. Profits on their CPU biz are positive but substantially lower that Q306. This is excluding acquisition related charges.3. Gross margins are severely impacted.http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070112/

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-84373827139419099302007-01-10T22:37:00.000+08:002007-01-12T11:20:04.736+08:00

I saw the Apple TV specs and sure enough it had an Intel CPU. I was trying to see if there was any Intel silicon inside the iPhone but couldn't confirm that till now:Apple says Intel to supply iPhone CPUI had expected there to be Intel flash in the iPhone. But gosh - a CPU. Just when Intel got out of the smart phone business. I'm betting this is another customized product built off an extremely

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-61413215490552961202007-01-05T09:56:00.000+08:002007-01-08T11:58:23.061+08:00

In a couple of weeks, our two protagonists of this epic saga will release their Q406 results. Unfortunately I don't have all the tools and info sources of a Wall Street analyst but it's time to make some kind of prediction.AMD:* I think this will be an ok to down quarter for AMD. Which means they will either come in at what they said they will do when they announced Q3 or do worse than what they

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-56428971835729464542006-12-21T00:00:00.000+08:002006-12-21T00:14:17.104+08:00

Here's one for you guys...I'm yanking this completely out of my imagination. Since it's Christmas, I figured what the heck, there's no harm in asking:In 2007 Apple will launch an "Ultra Mobile PC" based on Intel technology. This product will potentially come around the same time as their IPTV set top box. It will coincide with the launch of a full fledged video/movie service from Apple. Possibly,

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-47454539813712254402006-12-20T23:48:00.000+08:002006-12-20T23:58:37.173+08:00

Back in September I had forecasted AMD would be heading for a GAAP loss in Q1 or Q2 2007:http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/ati-revises-quarterly-guidance-down.htmlHaving seen Bob Rivet's presentation at their recent Analysts Day, I think it's time to reiterate that prediction for the following reasons:1. While AMD eked out a 56 million $ profit in Q306, ATI lost almost the same amount. And.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-608355617879553352006-12-20T00:55:00.000+08:002006-12-20T09:16:06.060+08:00

Some time ago I wrote about how Apple was determined to become the Walmart of digital content:http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/apple-effect.htmlAfter Google's 1.4 billion $ purchase of Youtube, I now believe Apple's biggest threat long term will be Google. Why...? It's because Google wants to ensure they own every online touch point possible to sell advertising. But not just any

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-46417124254063984622006-12-14T10:53:00.000+08:002006-12-14T11:41:14.360+08:00

I was reading this letter on The Inquirer (before you jump for your guns - I'm going to slay their opinion shortly) about how the 4x4 is the PC equivalent of a 400 horse powered Merc and not a Toyota and I had a violent convulsion of disagreement resulting in this post:http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36319(Pls read the article before reading the rest of the post)Unfortunately, the

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-54409010666358592742006-12-04T13:13:00.000+08:002006-12-09T10:17:11.946+08:00

Reviews and pricing for 4x4 are out comparing it to Kentsfield. Here are some of them:http://www.firingsquad.com/hardware/amd_athlon_64_fx_74_4x4/default.asphttp://enthusiast.hardocp.com/article.html?art=MTIzMyw1LCxoZW50aHVzaWFzdA==http://www.tomshardware.com/2006/11/30/brute_force_quad_cores/page13.htmlhttp://www.hothardware.com/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=911&cid=1I'm not the right guy to

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com38tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-67533902855754868522006-11-27T14:33:00.000+08:002006-11-27T14:44:26.170+08:00

I've been away and pretty busy but I wanted to do a quick note on Dell's Q3. This was obviously a strong rebound for Dell in terms of revenue and more importantly profits even though HP grew share faster than them. I think primarily this quarter their move to Opteron in servers has definitely helped them. I also think their focus on trying to move their higher margin products has helped somewhat.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-13810478066309540852006-11-17T00:26:00.000+08:002006-11-17T00:28:47.755+08:00

Intel increases dividendsAfter announcing a Q406 dividend, which I discussed here:http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/intel-announces-dividend.htmlTo further raise the dividend is not the sign of a company worrying about their cash position. What's going on here? Something has happened to give the board confidence that they can not only afford a dividend, they can increase it.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-36666851966631924422006-11-15T21:23:00.000+08:002006-11-16T12:44:58.158+08:00

I had said back in September that Nvidia and HP would get more aligned with Intel post the ATI acquisition. The Nvidia piece of that has started to materialize.http://www.nvidia.com/object/IO_37234.htmlI'm thinking this is only the first step and there will be more to come between Nvidia and Intel. To read the original post, go here:New Bed-fellowsSo far this week that's 2 predictions come right

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-73385095687767008212006-11-13T22:17:00.000+08:002006-11-15T18:02:49.788+08:00

In their quarterly filing AMD cancelled PIC. Scroll down to page 32:AMD Q3 filingI called this back in September when I said the cash being spent behind the ATI deal would force Hector to review which projects he continues to fund and perhaps the PIC would disappear.New Bed-fellows(Scroll down the post)The point is not PIC itself which has very little material impact on AMD"s revenues. The point

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-2537523886572294472006-11-09T10:01:00.000+08:002006-11-14T00:16:29.091+08:00

The good Doctor of Pervasive 64 bit Disinformation has started running Google ads. I have nothing against this. All power to him if he can make money writing what he writes best. However, what I cannot understand is that he has ads promoting Intel products on his page. Surely his ethics would prevent him promoting Intel's products since he believes they all deserve to be consigned to a landfill.

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-81791020205220953962006-11-09T01:08:00.000+08:002006-11-11T17:11:07.062+08:00

Dell with Quad Core Xeons on day 1. That's some time to market and endorsement:http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061108/20061108005201.html?.v=1This is where the rubber hits the road and all the talk about K8L disappears into thin air as the product still does not exist. At this point all the dudes who are fantasizing about how AMD's quad core will kick Intel's ass get a dose of reality. It doesn't matter

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-44258291946740382552006-11-08T00:09:00.000+08:002006-11-09T17:28:35.511+08:00

A very quick note. There is some wild gesticulation from the AMD "fannies" that AMD's CPU margins and cost structures are better than Intel's based on some ridiculous calculations (which I have already pointed out are baseless) from my good friend the Doctor. Here's why this is inaccurate and just a bunch of hand-waving from the AMD fans:1. In Q3, Intel and AMD's gross margins were almost

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-17776798992277528052006-11-05T23:44:00.000+08:002006-11-05T23:55:40.887+08:00

First - I have been pretty busy last couple of weeks to post regularly to the blog. Instead, I've been trying to ensure comments get through and I can respond. Hopefully things will ease out this week and I'll be able to finish my Q3 take which has been in draft for some time. This post isn't a deep analysis. It's more to confirm the DIY channel frustration with AMD for shorting them on supply is

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-81628474413644917982006-10-26T23:20:00.000+08:002006-11-04T11:08:49.510+08:00

I want to start by saying this is NOT GOOD FOR AMD.http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20061024PR211.html (this link now needs a log in)http://dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=4706If you look at my posts/comments over the last few days I have been saying Dell is dragging AMD down the price stack and squeezing them on pricing thus hurting margins. I am now convinced this is what is happening. I

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com43tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-90813808224044610642006-10-25T23:17:00.000+08:002006-10-25T23:38:44.440+08:00

AMD which has just acquired ATI is promoting Crossfire systems with 3 out of 4 being Core 2 systems as best in class for gaming. I screen grabbed them before they get removed...What makes this really funny is this is not on the ATI site but on the AMD site:http://ati.amd.com/technology/crossfire/promotions.htmlI wonder how quickly this comes down? Someone is getting a flamer in their e-mail when

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-10785439368097161412006-10-25T15:00:00.000+08:002006-10-25T23:16:00.742+08:00

I want to move past the earnings announcements quickly cos they're stale news and I've taken too long to get to this. Hence, just a quick note on AMD:1. Overall, their quarter came in on track more or less as I'd predicted including the fact they'd have a better quarter of it than Intel financially. The market share discussion also sees some light with the following assessment from Mercury

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-43680740175798863572006-10-23T10:28:00.000+08:002006-10-23T23:00:34.175+08:00

Folks - I'm in the process of my analysis on the Q3 earnings but stopped to make a point on how everyone is using YOY (year on year) or QOQ (qtr on qtr) results selectively. They both serve different purposes and with some astute (non-biased) interpretation can be used together to give you a good read. However, don't ignore the changes in the marketplace:1. AMD will start using 65nm which will

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-20363496407973285522006-10-22T22:33:00.000+08:002006-10-24T01:14:04.118+08:00

Been busy this weekend and just able to grab a little time to listen to the earnings properly:1. Server revenue, double digit unit growth and ASP growth - this is a very healthy sign. As I had said earlier, Intel is starting to win back their big losses in servers...specially in the DP space. Combine that with the fact that Woodcrest is already 40% of the server market by volume in 3 months (as

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-20910789206523514032006-10-19T00:39:00.000+08:002006-10-19T00:50:26.125+08:00

I'm still kind of tied up so don't have time to do an in depth analysis on Intel's earnings right now. A couple of things that caught my attention:1. They exceeded targets slightly which was kind of in line with my overall prediction that they would be on track to hit their target. They exceeded the mid point by 100 mln $ which is ok. But the bigger take away is Intel is focussed on executing

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-53235126753060654892006-10-14T21:21:00.000+08:002006-10-16T19:23:13.236+08:00

I'm going to be away and kind of busy for a few days. May not get to post but will definitely make time to come back and look at Intel's Q3 results on the 17th. I will however check in and ensure comments get through. Till then, remember my prediction:Intel will regain market share and momentum (share + margins) in Q4. If you wanted my advice, I would have told you to buy Intel at 17$. Now, buy

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-81621262542821608862006-10-13T00:35:00.000+08:002006-11-11T17:17:17.322+08:00

The combined AMD/ATI will cut 2000 jobs:http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35046While it's sad that even two companies who seem to be on a roll will hack of 15% of their combined workforce, I think this is a smart move. It is better to remove the excess now when they can afford it. However, I wonder how the 800 AMD employees who are going to be laid off must be feeling. Undoubtedly

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-28661248346578333812006-10-12T16:48:00.000+08:002006-10-12T19:17:11.631+08:00

In spite of dialling down the cache from 1MB to 512kb and removing some SKUs it appears AMD is running into a capacity shortage thanks to Dell having first right of refusal on supply:http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35004I was beginning to think they had avoided this pitfall but it appears not (scroll down the comments here).http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/2006/09/amd-won-dell-2-

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-232446419687505922006-10-05T14:55:00.000+08:002006-10-05T14:59:45.371+08:00

Speculation that Intel will announce acquisition of Nvidia today:Intel to take over Nvidia My own instinct is that an acquisition is probably not the best solution if all they're after is technology. A stake in Nvidia or even a JV or a MOU type arrangement to co-develop certain technologies are better paths to gaining advantage of Nvidia's technical capabilities. However, from a business

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-57926155421954913462006-10-04T10:45:00.000+08:002006-10-04T11:02:21.510+08:00

I had a few comments asking for a post on this issue of "batteries are exploding because of Intel CPUs" theory Sharikou has propogated. Here are my thoughts:1. Do you seriously believe Sony has not closely investigated the issue to analyse root cause and would replace millions of $s of batteries thereby hammering what looked like a reasonable financial year after a long time if they could pass

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9020108538297955304.post-55717089587087443692006-10-03T22:44:00.000+08:002006-10-03T23:02:07.923+08:00

Last week HP decided to buy Voodoo PC. Rahul wrote a long blog post on how it all happened and what the future could hold:http://voodoopc.blogspot.com/2006/09/project-vampire-is-about-to-fly_28.htmlWhile this makes sense if HP's motivation is purely to have a rebuttal or instrument to counter Dell should they get smart and begin to use the Alienware acquisition more strategically. The big

180 Sharikouhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01976521382562563035noreply@blogger.com0